Kabar Baik! Ilmuwan Peraih Nobel Prediksi Wabah Corona Segera Berakhir, Ini Penjelasan dan Buktinya

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TRIBUNPALU.COM - Seiring kondisi kecemasan masyarakat mengenai wabah Covid-19 atau virus corona meningkat di berbagai negara, masih terdapat kabar baik yang bisa menenangkan kekhawatiran itu.

Michael Levitt

Kabar baik itu tertuang dalam analisis seorang pemenang Nobel sekaligus ahli biofisika Stanford, Michael Levitt.
Pada penelitian tersebut memperkirakan peningkatan jumlah kematian terkait kasus virus corona akan terus berkurang dari hari ke hari.
Dikutip TribunPalu.com dari media teknologi daring Israel, calcalistech.com Michael Levitt menceritakan detail soal kabar baik ini.
Levitt sengaja mengirimka pesan-pesan menenangkan kepada teman-temannya yang berada di China.
Lalu, analisis Levitt tersebut diterjemahkan ke dalam bahasa Mandarin dan diteruskan melalui pesan broadcast.
Kabar baik ini pun menjadi pembicaraan populer untuk berbagai wawancara di Asia.
Levitt mungkin bukanlah ahli epidemiologi, tetapi ia memahami betul tentang perhitungan dan statistik, katanya kepada Calcalist dalam sebuah wawancara telepon.
Meskipun dia yakin pandemi ini akan berjalan baik-baik saja, Levitt menekankan dukungannya terhadap semua kebijakan demi keselamatan yang saat ini sedang diterapkan dan wajib untuk dipatuhi.
Levitt sama sekali tak bermaksud menjadi nabi yang meramalkan kapan akhir dari pandemi ini terjadi, sebab analisisnya tepat merupakan hal yang tidak disengaja.

Istrinya, Shoshan Brosh adalah seorang peneliti seni di China dan kurator untuk seni fotografer setempat, yang berarti pasangan ini harus membagi waktu mereka antara Amerika Serikat, Israel, dan China.
Saat kasus corona ini meledak, Brosh menulis kalimat penyemangat kepada teman-temannya di China.
"Ketika mereka menjawab kami, mereka menggambarkan betapa rumitnya situasi di sana (China), saya memutuskan untuk menelisik lebih dalam pada angka-angka (laporan kasus setiap harinya) dengan harapan bisa mendapatkan beberapa kesimpulan," jelas Levitt seperti dikutip dari Calcalistech yang terbit Jumat (13/3/2020).
“Tingkat infeksi virus di provinsi Hubei meningkat 30% setiap hari. Itu adalah statistik yang menakutkan. Saya bukan ahli influenza tetapi saya bisa menganalisis angka dan itu adalah pertumbuhan eksponensial," sambungnya.
Pada tingkat ini, kemungkinan terburuknya seluruh dunia seharusnya sudah terinfeksi dalam 90 hari, katanya.
Namun, dari hari ke hari tren tersebut berubah.

Ketika Levitt mulai menganalisis data pada 1 Februari, Hubei memiliki 1.800 kasus baru setiap hari dan dalam enam hari jumlah ini mencapai 4.700.
“Dan kemudian, pada 7 Februari, jumlah kasus infeksi baru mulai menurun secara linear dan tidak berhenti. Seminggu kemudian, hal yang sama terjadi dengan jumlah kematian," kata Levitt.
Itu artinya, perubahan yang signifikan pada kurva ini menandai titik puncak.
"Perubahan dramatis pada kurva ini menandai titik tengah dan memungkinkan prediksi yang lebih baik tentang kapan pandemi akan berakhir. Berdasarkan itu, saya menyimpulkan bahwa situasi di seluruh Tiongkok akan membaik dalam dua minggu. Dan, memang, sekarang ada sangat sedikit kasus infeksi baru,” lanjutnya.
Pesan Levitt dalam sebuah broadcast itu dengan cepat membuat penasaran masyarakat China dan orang-orang yang ingin memastikan dia memang menulis informasi yang benar.
Kemudian, mereka pun mulai menghubungi Levitt untuk mengkonfirmasi prediksinya itu.
“Itulah bagaimana saya tahu saya perlu melanjutkan (analisis angka tersebut),” katanya.
Levitt mulai mengirimkan laporan berkala kepada teman-temannya di China, dan popularitas mereka menyebabkan wawancara di televisi China, misalnya pada CGTN yang setara dengan CNN.
Berdasarkan berkurangnya jumlah kasus infeksi dan kematian, katanya, virus itu mungkin akan hilang dari China pada akhir Maret.
Levitt menghindari membuat prediksi ini secara global.
Di China, katanya, jumlah kasus infeksi baru akan segera mencapai angka nol.
Lalu Korea Selatan telah melewati titik puncak dan sudah dapat melihat ujung akhir wabah ini.
Menurutnya, mengenai seluruh dunia, masih sulit untuk memprediksikannya.

Sementara, dikutip dari The Los Angeles Times via Kompas.com, Levitt memulai analisis itu dengan menjumlahkan kasus virus corona di seluruh dunia pada bulan Januari.

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